If there is one, what's a sure fire way to either make a nice profit or lose a nice chunk of your capital with an approximately 50% chance? Calls vs Puts before an earnings call? Etc? I'm also just really curious in general about statistical probabilities for certain outcomes as it relates to trading vs gambling. I assume there are just too many variables to ever get a true approximation of the odds and that people simply get on hot streaks (like someone that does not understand probability in
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