Why is oil returning to normal priced like a tail event?

I legitimately don't get it. A put spread targeting USO at 80-100 by December 2028 is a 5x? Hormuz is already closed. Global oil supply is increasing to meet a lowering demand. Russia is likely to finish up in Ukraine soon. The French election is in 2027 and the right (which is openly calling for normalization in EU-Russian trade) is looking poised to win. JD Vance declared that the Trump administration's #1 objective is lowering oil prices. Contango causes USO share prices to crash even harder

CryptoAlerta — análise de criptomoedas e mercado em tempo real