"You are playing with fire." Warren Buffett used those five words to bluntly warn investors in a 2001 Fortune article. He preceded the warning with a discussion of his favorite market gauge, the ratio of total stock market capitalization to gross national product (GNP). This metric became popularly known as the Buffett indicator. The "Oracle of Omaha" wrote in the article that when the total stock market capitalization-to-GNP ratio "rose to an unprecedented level" nearly two years earlier, it "should have been a very strong warning signal" to investors. And he used the "playing with fire" language to describe the scenario when the market valuation gauge approaches 200%.
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