The term structure in the futures curve reflects a tight supply situation, with backwardation strengthening across the crude oil, diesel and gasoline markets in the months since the conflict in Iran began, CME Group data shows. The NY Harbor Ultra-Low Sulfur Diesel (ULSD) futures market shows the steepest backwardation, with the December 2026/December 2027 calendar spread widening to nearly $1.40 per gallon (or $58.8 per barrel) in September, compared to approximately $0.02 per gallon at the same point in 2025. This price gap, driven by both decreasing distillate inventories and stronger export demand, according to EIA data, points to tightening global supply.
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