TTWO closed at $191.20 Friday and hit a new 52 week low during the day. GTA 6 comes out Nov 19, 19 days from now. In case you didn’t know, Take-Two owns Rockstar, so this is their game. This stock moves on GTA news, sometimes news that isn’t even real. When Rockstar announced the first trailer in Nov 2023, TTWO was up almost 10% premarket. In May a leaked email made it look like preorders were about to open, and the stock went up almost 7% that day (preorders didn’t actually open until late June). Then in June it ran from about $212 to $245 in two weeks around the real preorder announcement. From here to launch there’s going to be GTA news pretty much every day. Demand isn’t the question either. Trailer 2 got 475M views in 24 hours, and Circana (they track US game sales) says 29% of US console and PC players plan to buy it, the highest they’ve ever measured for any game. Most hyped game ever and the stock is at a 52 week low. Two dates to watch before launch. Earnings are Monday Nov 9 after close, the last time management gets to talk up preorders before the game is out. Then digital preload opens Thursday Nov 12. Physical copies come with download codes that work the same day, so pretty much everyone who preordered will be downloading it that week. I’m playing the run up. Shares or calls dated after launch. Nov monthlies expire the 20th, the day after launch, so Dec 18 gives you more room. Earnings are a wildcard, so don’t size so big that a bad report wrecks you, but I don’t think it matters much here. The real risk is a delay, and the last ones cost the stock 7-8% each. I don’t see it happening this late though. They reaffirmed Nov 19 on the August call, preorders have been up for four months, and the preload date is set. You don’t usually announce a preload date and then push the game. Positions: Dec 18th 220c, 250c
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