Right off the bat! I'm not convinced cutting AI spending would make me more bullish on Google because it would only help cash flow but wouldn't remove the threat to Search. What I'm trying to separate is spending that adds a new source of profit from spending needed to keep the existing business competitive. Then I saw this breakdown from Ramp which points to weaker monetization in AI Overviews which is where the investment case gets harder for me. If more searches become AI answers that earn less and cost more to serve then Google could retain its users while making less money from them. My concern is that waiting for capex to fall assumes too much about what comes after since lower spending would improve free cash flow without necessarily fixing weaker Search margins. The bull case I'd take more seriously is cheaper inference closing that gap and Cloud generating enough additional profit to justify the buildout. Until then I'd want to value GOOGL with lower Search margins and continued infrastructure spending rather than assume both recover.
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