Regardless of your politics, if you are a student of history and believe market trends are true indicators we can now project the end of this bull market. Looking back at history from Theodore Roosevelt thru Biden, we can easily predict a recession is coming. Everytime we have had a 2nd term Republican President lose their final midterm, a recession has occured. - T Roosevelt had the panic of 1907 (notably Trump is very much a president in the image of TR) - Eisenhower had the recession of 1957 - Reagan had black Monday - GWB had the GFC I'm not making this political, we can talk cause and effect. What I am saying is that if you study history, a lame duck republican president with a democrat controlled congress has resulted in a recession. And a recession may have occured regardless of the outcome as there are some major issues weighing on the country. Inflation is still a problem, social security is going to require a resolution, the debt and deficit are wildly out of control (and this is an issue of both parties). I think the main reason this is now a concern is that the democrats will want to tackle multiple social issues (health care, student loans, mortgage rates, minimum wage) that will both put more pressure on the deficit while also weighing on the profitability of business. My personal prediction? I think the democrats will push for an increase in the minimum wage to $15 an hour and I think Trump being a populist will support it. While almost no one makes minimum wage, you have a lot of contracted wages (union and otherwise) that are tied to increases in the minimum wage. This will have a dual effect of hurting business profitability while increasing unemployment, both of which will hurt tax revenues. Happy to hear from those who think I am wrong. And no I don't intend to sell out of all my positions. Anyone who was diversified and stayed invested through 1987 and 2008 did extrodinarily well. But I will certainly start considering more hedging strategies. -Tea-5733
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