At a $5B market cap and roughly $3B in reported cash and marketable securities, you're looking at around $2B for the rest of the business. Back in October 2025, when the stock hit $171.56, the market cap was around $25.3B, with less than $1B in cash. Subtract the cash and you get roughly $24.4B. So the market value beyond cash has gone from $24.4B to about $2.1B in less than a year. That's a 91% decline. And that's before considering the possibility that the latest $1B ATM adds more cash to the balance sheet. The full amount hasn't necessarily been raised, but if it were, the market would be valuing everything beyond cash at roughly $1B before accounting for subsequent spending. Obviously, cash isn't free money for shareholders. Oklo has reactors to build, projects to finance and plenty of execution risk. But it's pretty remarkable how much the market's valuation of the business has changed. The average analyst price target is still around $70, although targets have been coming down. Has the market become so focused on the risks of commercializing nuclear that it’s overlooking the potential of what Oklo is building? With the market value beyond cash down 91% in less than a year, it feels like the pendulum may have swung a little too far toward pessimism.
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