Iran does not need a deal right now because its military or political room for manoeuvre has narrowed. It needs one because the crisis has turned oil (Tehran’s most important economic weapon) into a problematic asset. For years, Iran’s export model survived sanctions by leaning on China, discounted barrels, ship-to-ship transfers, and a shadow logistics chain running from Kharg Island to Malaysia, Singapore and China’s independent refining system. The crisis in the Strait of Hormuz has not destr
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