Small businesses have stopped buying software on promise alone. Before they pay for an AI tool, they want to watch it work on their own customer data. HubSpot Inc. (HUBS), which sells marketing and sales software to those firms, just showed investors what that caution costs. Chief Executive Yamini Rangan put it plainly on the company’s third-quarter earnings call on Wednesday, November 4, 2026. “They want proof before they buy,” she said of customers. That demand is slowing sign-ups. HubSpot added 5,300 net customers in the quarter, down from 7,000 in the second quarter, Chief Financial Officer Kate Bueker said. She expects fewer than 5,000 in the fourth quarter. Revenue rose 17% to $947.6 million, according to HubSpot’s earnings release. The company expects growth to slow to 12% in the fourth quarter. Also read: Major business software company HubSpot cuts nearly 7% of workforce The bigger reversal sits in net new annual recurring revenue, the subscription revenue HubSpot adds in a year. The company entered 2026 expecting that figure to grow faster than revenue, according to Investing.com. Bueker now expects it to come in below last year’s level. Small businesses now treat AI as a separate bill Answering Jefferies analyst Samad Samana, Rangan explained why smaller customers have grown more price sensitive. “AI is a new line item,” she said, and small firms are trying to control spending across every tool they test. Every upgrade becomes another expense to defend. Churn has held steady, with customer dollar retention “in the high 80s,” Bueker said. Net revenue retention, which also counts upgrades, slipped to 101%, she said. That means existing customers spend only about 1% more than a year ago. I’d argue that is the more worrying number, because sign-ups and upgrades are slowing at once. HubSpot added 5,300 net customers in the third quarter, down from 7,000, as small businesses demand proof that AI tools work before they buy. hapabapa / Getty Images HubSpot chose part of this slowdown itself Some of that slowdown, though, was HubSpot’s own doing. In the second quarter, it began offering free trials and outcome-based pricing. “We knew this would extend buying cycles and create near-term headwinds,” Rangan said. Those trials need help to convert. Larger customers get partners and consultants, Rangan said, while smaller ones get automated onboarding. Either way, HubSpot pays for the proof and waits longer to get paid. Bueker described the trade-off: HubSpot is “prioritizing setting the business up for long-term growth rather than solving for short-term net adds.” Credit to the management for saying that out loud. It still asks investors to wait for a recovery that customers have not signed off on yet. Wall Street downgrades HubSpot as growth slows Analysts did not wait. BTIG’s Nick Altmann cut the stock to Neutral, citing customers “demanding more proof of value,” according to Seeking Alpha. KeyBanc’s Jackson Ader saw “little room for improvement” before February’s 2027 guidance, according to Investing.com. Cantor Fitzgerald went furthest. “We no longer see HUBS as a premier SaaS asset that deserves the benefit of the doubt,” analyst Matthew VanVliet said. Most downgrades landed on neutral ratings, which expect the stock to track its peers. Cantor’s Underweight expects it to lag. More Artificial Intelligence: AI’s biggest business opportunity may not look like AI AI racks are outgrowing old power: 2 chipmakers have a strategy BofA splits software into winners and losers as AI agents arrive Needham’s Joshua Reilly stayed bullish but still wrote that “2027 consensus estimates need to come down.” The calls on Thursday, November 5, 2026, according to Seeking Alpha: Underweight from Neutral, target cut to $170 from $265: Cantor Fitzgerald, Matthew VanVliet Equal Weight from Overweight, target cut to $229 from $287: Morgan Stanley Sector Weight from Overweight, no target: KeyBanc Capital Markets, Jackson Ader Neutral from Buy, no target: BTIG, Nick Altmann Hold kept, target cut to $215 from $260: TD Cowen Buy kept, $300 target unchanged: Needham, Joshua Reilly Shares fell 7.2% in after-hours trading. The stock had already lost 46% this year, according to Investing.com. At pre-report prices, my math puts it at about 16 times the $13.60 midpoint of HubSpot’s own 2026 adjusted earnings guidance. I wouldn’t call that cheap for a business slowing to 12% growth. Still, Cantor’s $170 target looks too harsh to me. HubSpot is widening margins and has bought back nearly $1 billion of stock this year, Bueker said. As of late October, 35 analysts listed on StockAnalysis rated HubSpot a consensus Buy, with an average target of $248.77. Hold ratings had already climbed to 22 in October from 8 in May, a sign of fading patience. HubSpot’s recovery now rests on trials turning paid Bueker expects the headwinds to last “throughout the remainder of the year and into 2027.” The $170 to $300 spread in new targets shows little agreement on what those trials will earn. For small business owners, this is a buyer’s market: free trials, automated onboarding and, in an overseas pricing test, cheaper upgrades. Vendors selling to small firms used to sign customers first and prove value later. AI is flipping that order. February’s guidance will show how long HubSpot can afford to wait, and it’s the next number I’m watching. More Stocks News Goldman Sachs and Apollo changes position on SpaceX Stock Market Today (Nov. 6, 2026): Nasdaq futures rise following AI tech rout Gas prices fall, but Goldman Sachs sees a $105 risk Analysts rethink AppLovin stock price targets after earnings
CryptoAlerta — análise de criptomoedas e mercado em tempo real