Investors are treating every big tech AI buildout like a normal growth story. A few companies may build durable moats in proprietary data or distribution, but the market is pricing that exception as if every spender gets one. For most, trillions of dollars in capex pay off only if AGI arrives and they win the race. Every company has to make that bet, but the market cannot be right about all of them at once. AGI could justify the spending by turning compute into a general-purpose workforce deploy
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