When I was 7 everyone in my class drew themselves as firefighters and astronauts and I drew a stick figure next to a line going up and to the right with SHARPE 3 written over it in crayon. My mom kept it on the fridge for years because she thought it was a rocket. So in late 2021 I read the Hedgefundie post on Bogleheads and it felt like the drawing come to life. 55% UPRO, 45% TMF, rebalance quarterly, stocks and long bonds are negatively correlated so when one drops the other goes up and the 3x does the rest. The backtest went back to 1982 and had a CAGR I’m not going to write here because you’ll think I’m making it up. I put in everything that wasn’t my emergency fund and a few weeks later I put in the emergency fund too. Then 2022 happened and it turned out stocks and bonds can both go down at the same time, which nobody told me, and also that 1982 was right when rates started falling for 40 straight years, which also nobody told me, or maybe they did somewhere in the comments and I didn’t scroll that far. At the bottom I was down a bit over 70% and my wife asked why I kept opening the app in the bathroom. It’s been almost 5 years and I’m still holding it, partly out of conviction and partly because selling means telling her the actual number. I think I’m still behind just buying VTI the whole time but I haven’t done the math properly because I don’t really want to know. So for anyone else who was in HFEA back then, did you hold, sell at the bottom, or switch to one of the “modified” versions with gold and managed futures so it technically counts as a different strategy. VT people feel free to comment too, I know you’re going to anyway. edit: yes I know the backtest was cherry picked, I know that now
CryptoAlerta — análise de criptomoedas e mercado em tempo real