GOOGL +29%, AMZN +15%, MSFT basically flat, META -12%, ORCL and CRWV both down more than 50%. The racks themselves are up about 84%. Classic 'guy selling the shovels' setup, except the shovels now cost a mortgage and the diggers can’t stop ordering them. Been staring at the Stockatomics server/AI rack import data (charts attached). Volume is basically the same as early 2023. The bill is not. Jan 2023: ~1.14m units at $2,823 avg = $2.7bn Jan 2025: 1.66m at $4,591 = $5.9bn Aug 2025: 2.16m at $8,879 = $17.5bn Jul 2026: 1.96m at $16,909 = $33.6bn (biggest month so far) Aug 2026: 1.73m at $16,317 = $30.3bn Same number of boxes as three years ago, eleven times the money. What used to be a pizza-box server is now a liquid-cooled rack with a bunch of GPUs and a stupid amount of memory in it. That’s the whole story of the 'capex raised' headlines. Amazon literally said memory got more expensive when they added $20bn to the guide. Meta’s capex just ate its entire operating cash flow for the first time since 2012. They’re not buying way more units, but paying way more for roughly the same shipment and the companies selling the scarce stuff (Dell, Micron, the cooling guys) know the hyperscalers can’t really stop. So the divergence keeps going. Every raise is mostly price but not volume. Sellers keep the pricing power, buyers’ free cash flow keeps getting squeezed. They fund it with debt, leases, whatever Meta is doing with non-voting shares. Supplier charts peel away from buyer charts until something actually forces a pause. That something is probably power and not the demand. Amazon is already taking delivery of GB300 racks it can’t plug in and parking them. The month that unpowered pile stops getting ordered is the month the $16k average starts rolling over. That’s when Dell and friends finally hold the bag and the buyers get a chance to catch a bid. How you’d know it’s turning? Well, it's the same chart, price vs volume. Price up, volume flat or down = still this regime. First month the average price drops while volume rises is the early bell and it’ll show up in the data well before any CEO says anything useful on a call.
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