Trumpflation and a Surprise Catalyst Are the 2 Biggest Threats to the Trump Bull Market

President Donald Trump has overseen two of the most volatile periods in the stock market's storied history: the five-week COVID-19 crash in February-March 2020 and the week-long tariff tantrum in early April 2025. At the same time, the stock market has thrived under President Trump. The iconic Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES:^DJI), benchmark S&P 500 (SNPINDEX:^GSPC), and innovation-fueled Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX:^IXIC) gained 57%, 70%, and 142% during his first non-consecutive term, respectively, and have added 19%, 30%, and 39% since the start of his second term (through Oct. 13). The Trump bull market has flourished due to a number of factors, not all of which bear President Trump's fingerprints. For instance, the artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure build-out was well underway before Trump's second term began. The AI revolution has led to significantly better-than-expected corporate earnings growth.

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