If you stretch the timeline to 10-15 years or longer, 99.9% of arbitrageurs, quant traders and short-term traders don’t look good. Returns get hit hard by mean reversion. A lot of them end up losing money overall. On top of that the constant stress messes with cortisol, sleep becomes shit for years, and the body takes real damage. In the end it’s just not worth it. The deeper problem is an epistemological mistake. They treat things that are fundamentally unknowable as if they were knowable. They
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