VC analyst here, and Figure AI keep’s landing on my desk. Figure’s Series C put it at ~$39B (NVIDIA, Microsoft, Bezos backing) but that already tops Goldman’s estimate for the entire 2035 humanoid market, on basically zero revenue. BMW also went with a rival for its latest pilot, and there’s an open safety whistleblower suit. Bull: massive TAM, deepest backer list, owns the full stack. Bear: pricing 2040 into a pre-revenue company; Tesla/China could win on cost. Is $39B defensible on any real nu
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