It is amazing to me how all of ETF's that follow indexes or have a wide range of stock are near 52w moving averages, yet so much stuff has crashed 20 to 70% already when you look at individual tickers, and other bigger companies also took big losses. We've seen yields go to 5% We've seen Trump do Trump things. "Vote for me if you want more war after midterms" like wtf. We've seen AI capex fears hit ATH's with Oracle CDS going up, gloom and doom news about robots taking over And yet the indexes which are supposedly "held by a few stocks" that basically depend on this AI spending continue to go up. So I don't know what it takes for markets to finally give us a capitulation so we can buy indexes at, at least, a -10% discount, but refuse to get anywhere near the 200WMA for a long time now. I am bagholding so much cash, like im 90% cash and have around 400k€ waiting in money market funds. Im also bagholding some IREN which is my only equity now, like 500 shares, at a 50% loss now. Im not selling, but im also not buying because these things can dump so much (and recover quick if narrative shifts). So my idea is to start a position on my ETF watchlist (mostly FGEQ, ISPA, VDIV) when SP500 crashes and takes down all these ETFs with it, and also add to my % of gambling allocation with high beta stocks like IREN which can run blazing fast once we hit the event horizon and everyone has capitulated. But it just feels like im stuck in this loop where indexes will forever go up while magically most individual tickers are dumping already. So I don't get it like wtf. We had 70% crashes on so many tickers, if the indexes crashes like say 10 to 20%, how low are these going to get? TL;DR: Just give me a proper crash so I can allocate.
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