Iranian adviser warned Thursday that another U.S. strike could push the war into the Indian Ocean, after the conflict already spread from the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea. The expansion raises the risk of oil‑tanker disruptions, tightening global supply and pushing crude prices higher while prompting navies to deploy more assets. For Brazilian investors, PETR4 upside may offset higher input costs for airlines and logistics firms. A comparable episode occurred in 2019 when Gulf tensions lifted Brent roughly 6% within weeks, boosting energy and defense shares. Watch for U.S. naval movements in the Indian Ocean and any Iranian missile attacks on merchant vessels as the next trigger. Over the medium term (1‑3 months) oil price volatility and defense order flow will dominate market dynamics.
Nas próximas 2‑4 semanas, se o Irã atacar navios no Índico, o Brent pode subir 5‑8%, impulsionando XOM e PETR4 em 3‑5% e LMT em 4‑6%; caso haja cessar‑fogo até o fim de setembro, a pressão sobre DAL e MAERSK deve aliviar, limitando quedas a menos de 3%.
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