It's no secret the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) has enjoyed an unprecedented rally in recent years, fueled mostly by enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence (AI) and investments in technology infrastructure. Ironically enough, it's times like these that usually have contrarian investors like Warren Buffett sitting on the sidelines instead of following the crowd. Buffett's favorite valuation tool suggests his concerns may be justified. With stocks now trading well above levels Buffett views as extreme, history offers some important clues about what could happen next. In an article published by Fortune in December 2001, Buffett explained how investors could assess whether the overall stock market was reasonably valued. He described the relationship between total U.S. stock market capitalization and the country's gross national product (GNP) as "probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment."
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