In October 2025, the average 30-year mortgage rate was 6.27%, according to Freddie Mac data. By Oct. 15, 2026, the average had jumped to 7.40%. Every move higher makes a cheap pandemic-era loan look more like a prize nobody wants to give up. Buyers are already backing away. “Market conditions weakened in September due to fast-rising mortgage rates,” National Association of Realtors chief economist Lawrence Yun said as contract signings slid to a record low, Reuters reported. That is the backdrop Goldman Sachs is staring at as it looks out to 2027. Rates keep moving the wrong way The climb this autumn was fast. Mortgage News Daily’s average rate started in September near 6.9% and was sitting around 7.6% by the end of the month. Freddie Mac’s weekly gauge hit its highest level since November 2023. Forecasters have been forced to catch up. Fannie Mae now expects the 30-year rate to average 7.4% in Q4 2026 and 7.5% for 2027, up sharply from its September call. That is a gloomier path than Goldman’s, which sees rates easing to 6.4% by the end of 2027. Also read: Something shifted in the housing market, and sellers felt it first The Federal Reserve has not helped. Policymakers raised their benchmark rate by a quarter point on Sept. 16 to a range of 3.75% to 4%, and the next decision lands on Oct. 28. Another hike would push borrowing costs even further out of reach. And mortgage rates also depend on bond yields and market expectations. For anyone still shopping, the damage shows up every month. Senate Banking Committee staff for Sen. Elizabeth Warren estimate a typical buyer now pays about $361 more per month than in late February, as reported by TheStreet. Owners sitting on 3% loans feel none of that pain. Home sales are stuck in low gear The latest numbers back up Goldman’s gloomy outlook. Existing-home sales ran at an annual pace of 3.99 million in September, slightly below a year earlier. “August and September marked the two slowest months for home sales this year,” Yun said, according to the National Association of Realtors. The pipeline looks even weaker. NAR’s pending home sales index fell 7.3% in September to its lowest reading since the series began in 2001, and contract signings dropped in all four regions of the country, Reuters reported. Economists polled by Reuters had expected a drop of only 0.5%. Those pending contracts become the closed sales of the next few months. Prices are barely budging. The median existing-home price rose just 1.3% from a year earlier to $417,500, even as unsold inventory climbed above last year’s level. That fits Goldman’s view that the big equity gains are mostly behind us. Sellers are starting to bend. Concessions showed up in 44.7% of U.S. home sales in August, the highest August share since at least 2020, with many sellers paying to buy down a buyer’s mortgage rate instead of cutting the price, TheStreet reported. The median age of a first-time buyer is now 40, up from 32 in the early 2000s. Thomas Barwick / Getty Images 2 very different millennial housing stories NAR’s own economists see the split clearly. “The housing market remains sharply divided between homeowners with equity and first-time buyers trying to break in,” deputy chief economist Jessica Lautz said, according to the National Association of Realtors. First-time buyers made up just 21% of all buyers in NAR’s latest generational report, the lowest share since it began tracking in 1981. Older millennials sit firmly on the equity side of that line. Younger adults are waiting far longer than earlier generations did. The median first-time buyer is now 40, up from 32 in the early 2000s. And only 38.3% of 28-year-olds owned a home in 2025, compared with 44.4% of baby boomers at the same age, according to Redfin. More Goldman Sachs: Goldman Sachs rethinks U.S. economy as interest rates stay higher Goldman Sachs spills the beans on what’s next for S&P 500 Goldman Sachs sees big change coming for interest rates Renting is not getting any cheaper while they wait. Zillow found the typical U.S. rent rose 2.7% from a year earlier in September, the biggest annual gain since April 2025. Nearly 40% of Zillow rental listings offered a concession, but every month of rent remains a significant expense for households trying to save toward a down payment. Some are moving home to close the gap. About 22% of first-time homebuyers lived with family before buying their first house, a strategy Lautz described as a way to help them afford their own homes later, as reported by TheStreet. Their older peers, meanwhile, are trading up with equity they already have. What could finally thaw the housing market Few people in the industry expect a quick fix. “Higher rates will definitely slow the housing market, and force those with much lower rates to stay put,” said Kevin Thompson, CEO of 9i Capital Group, who added that the market “will be at a standstill for some time to come,” according to Newsweek. More supply is the long-term answer, but it will take years. The White House Council of Economic Advisers estimates the country is short about 10 million single-family homes, and the Senate passed the ROAD to Housing Act 89-10 to help address it. That vote came back in March, and new homes take time to build. Until then, the divide is likely to harden. Goldman expects lock-in to fade only gradually after 2027. Zillow had warned that while the rates could fall as quickly as they rose, it is still unclear whether buyers and sellers would rush back or just wait until spring. For millennials who are on the wrong side of that line, the wait keeps getting longer. Related: Jeff Bezos has a blunt answer for why housing is so expensive
CryptoAlerta — análise de criptomoedas e mercado em tempo real