Chinese companies account for just 9.2% of investment approved for Argentina’s mining projects under its Large Investment Incentive Regime (RIGI), challenging estimates that link Beijing to 70% of the country’s planned lithium production, according to an analysis by Chilean consultancy Plusmining. Argentina had approved 23 projects worth $49.8 billion under RIGI as of Oct. 1, including 12 mining developments valued at $21.2 billion, according to the Ministry of Economy. Weighting those mining investments by Chinese shareholders’ direct and indirect equity interests produces an attributable value of approximately $1.95 billion, said Antonia Godoy Arias, a policy and regulatory affairs analyst at Plusmining. Milei approves incentives for lithium mine expansion with China ties The discrepancy reflects two different measures of participation, Godoy Arias said. The 70% estimate concerns announced lithium production capacity at projects with Chinese shareholders, including developments awaiting approval, while the 9.2% figure measures ownership-weighted investment in projects already approved under RIGI. The distinction matters as Argentina seeks foreign capital to expand its critical minerals industry while navigating competition between Washington and Beijing. Chinese companies have established a significant position in lithium, but their financial exposure, operational control and rights to future production differ substantially across projects. Measuring ownership Six of the 12 approved mining projects have identifiable Chinese equity exposure, although only three have direct Chinese shareholders. Zijin Mining (SHA: 601899; HKG: 2899) controls Tres Quebradas in Catamarca through Neo Lithium, while Ganfeng Lithium (SHE: 002460; HKG: 1772) holds 46.7% of the Cauchari-Olaroz expansion in Jujuy through Minera Exar. Shandong Gold (SHA: 600547; HKG: 1787) owns 50% of phases eight and nine of the Veladero gold mine in San Juan. The remaining three projects have indirect Chinese exposure through corporate ownership structures, without Chinese shareholders at the project level. Chinalco’s approximately 11.23% holding in Rio Tinto (ASX, LON, NYSE: RIO) creates attributable exposure to the Rincón and Fénix lithium projects. At Los Azules, that interest falls to roughly 1.8% because Rio Tinto’s Nuton holds a stake in McEwen Copper, a subsidiary of McEwen Inc. (NYSE: MUX; TSX: MUX). These indirect holdings do not establish Chinese operational control. Plusmining calculated the ownership-weighted figures by multiplying each project’s approved investment by the Chinese equity interest attributable through its ownership structure. For indirect holdings, the consultancy multiplied successive ownership percentages through corporate entities to estimate China’s ultimate economic exposure. The analysis also considered a broader, binary approach that attributes the entire investment value of a project to China whenever qualifying Chinese participation exists, regardless of the shareholder’s actual stake. Including indirect interests in Rincón, Fénix and Los Azules increases the measured footprint, but even this broadest calculation produces a share well below 70%. The methodology distinguishes investment exposure from project association, but equity ownership does not capture every form of strategic influence. Chinese companies can also secure future mineral supply through offtake agreements, processing arrangements and integration into battery supply chains without controlling mining operations. Lithium pipeline Chinese participation could rise substantially as Argentina considers another $4.9 billion in RIGI applications involving Chinese shareholders. Three pending lithium developments represent approximately 222,000 tonnes of proposed annual production capacity. The largest, Pozuelos-Pastos Grandes, involves $3 billion in planned investment and is 67% owned by Ganfeng. CNGR Advanced Material (SHE: 300919) backs Salar de Jama, while Tibet Summit Resources (SHA: 600338) is involved in Litio Ángeles. Approval of Pozuelos-Pastos Grandes alone would raise China’s ownership-weighted share of RIGI mining investment to 16.3%, according to Plusmining. Approving all three applications would lift it to 22.3%. Those scenarios apply the same equity-weighting method to the proposed investments and add them to the approved mining portfolio. They exclude spending outside RIGI, including the $1 billion Ganfeng paid to acquire Pozuelos-Pastos Grandes in 2022 and approximately $1.8 billion it had deployed alongside Lithium Argentina (TSX: LAR; NYSE: LAR) as of 2025. China’s direct equity participation remains concentrated in lithium. Argentina’s emerging copper developments, backed by companies including BHP (ASX, LON, NYSE: BHP), Lundin Mining (TSX: LUN; STO: LUMI) and Glencore (LON: GLEN), have no direct Chinese shareholders among the projects examined. Chinese-backed lithium developments represent approximately 307,000 tonnes of announced annual capacity, comprising 85,000 tonnes in approved projects and 222,000 tonnes awaiting approval. US $20B backing, stability key to Argentina’s mining push For that volume to represent 70% of the total, the relevant project universe would need to contain approximately 439,000 tonnes of annual capacity. Available disclosures omit production figures for several approved developments, including Rincón and Fénix, preventing independent confirmation of the widely cited proportion from the sources reviewed. The investment outlook also carries geopolitical implications. US President Donald Trump characterized dependence on imported processed critical minerals as a national security threat in January and reiterated that position in July. Argentina and the US signed a critical materials agreement in February, although Argentine Foreign Minister Pablo Quirno said the arrangement does not exclude Chinese investment. Economic ties complicate any rapid shift away from Beijing. The countries’ central banks extended their currency swap arrangement for five years, with its value equivalent to approximately 40% of Argentina’s international reserves. Argentina’s mining exports reached $4.7 billion in the first half of 2026, rising 74.4% year over year. Shipments to China increased 205%, compared with 90% growth in exports to the US. Argentina mining revival fuels $40B copper push Jorge Mora of the International Lithium Association has observed that China’s position as a leading lithium producer and consumer limits the direct influence US trade policy can exert on Argentina’s industry. Plusmining research shows the next RIGI approvals could materially change China’s measured participation. Their longer-term significance will depend on whether Chinese companies hold minority financial interests, control mining operations or secure future mineral supply through commercial agreements.
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