After the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held rates at 3.75% at its July 29 meeting, concerns emerged that that monetary policy was not restraining the economy sufficiently to push inflation towards the 2% target level. The Fed then delivered a +25 basis point (BPS) hike to 4.00% at the September 16 meeting, as energy-driven inflation re-acceleration tipped the balance toward action. Fed officials were clear in their inflation assessments with several stating that “inflation has been too high for too long” and reaffirming commitment to the 2% goal. In the days following the rate hike, NY Fed President Williams signaled that one more rate increase “late this year” may be appropriate, while stressing there was no urgency to act at the October meeting. The US Treasury 2-year/10-year yield curve steepened to +45bp by quarter-end, reflecting the market's repricing of a higher-for-longer rate path. Current market pricing suggests one more hike is likely in late 2026 with two more hikes possible in 2027.
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