The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:SMH) had its highest close yet, $668.91, on June 22. Under four weeks later, on July 17, it closed at $556.53 -- its first close at least 15% below that peak. As I write, the chip fund is around $565, about 15% below its record and close to where it closed on July 17. That July close triggered a simple rule worth testing. Buy the fund on the first day it closes 15% or more below a record, and hold it for a year. I checked the rule against the fund's daily closing prices since the start of 2012 (dividends left out), counting one signal per drop and resetting every time the fund hit a new high. Eight signals have had a full year to play out. Seven of them finished the next year with a gain.
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