The S&P 500 earnings picture tells a similar story. Consensus operating EPS growth for the S&P 500 in 2026 is expected to be ~28%. Paper gains on AI investments will help push the total growth rate to ~33%. For historical comparison, S&P 500 4-quarter EPS growth has averaged ~7% over the past 30 years, according to Goldman Sachs. Current growth rates (roughly 4 times normal levels) were only reached previously during post-recession recoveries in 2010 and 2021. Goldman Sachs expects 2/3 of the 2026 growth (excluding AI investment gains) will come from AI Infrastructure (~50%) and Hyperscalers (~14%). NVIDIA (NVDA) and Micron (MU) alone are projected to account for over a third of the total S&P 500 growth this year! The concentration extends to the index itself: AI-linked names now make up roughly 45% of the S&P 500’s total market capitalization, the most concentrated in modern history. The sustainability of these remarkable growth rates remains hotly debated.
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