FedWatch ( https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html ) has a 25bps rate hike priced at 90.7% meanwhile Polymarket is showing 88%. Even better, no change is 9.3% on FedWatch and Polymarket is 12%, or a 30% difference. Does anyone know how to arb this trade? Where does FedWatch get it's data from? Is it based on bonds? There's a ton of liquidity and depth on both books (infinite depth in bonds and like $75 million+ across Polymarket US and international) so I could s
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